Swaziland faces a period of
continued unrest because the
recent election was unable to change anything, according to global analysts
Fitch Solutions. Risks to stability in the kingdom are growing, it said.
This is because King Mswati
III rules as an absolute monarch and the parliament has no powers.
In
an analysis following the election on 21 September 2018 in Swaziland
(recently
renamed Eswatini by the King) Fitch said it was ‘unlikely to defuse
tensions that have led to clashes between protestors and security services over
recent weeks, as elected parliamentary officials have very little real power.’
It said, ‘We therefore
expect continued incidents of unrest as citizens vent their frustrations, with
these protests likely to be met with a heavy-handed response by the government.
It added, ‘We retain the
view that unrest is unlikely to escalate into a complete breakdown of law and
order, as the king will continue to enjoy the support of the security services
and of regional leaders.
‘That said, we believe that risks to stability are growing, and we have decreased our short-term political risk index score for Eswatini as a result.’
‘That said, we believe that risks to stability are growing, and we have decreased our short-term political risk index score for Eswatini as a result.’
People in Swaziland are
only allowed to elect 59 members of the House of Assembly, the King appoints a
further 10. None of the 30 members of the Swazi Senate are elected by the people;
the King appoints 20 and 10 are elected by the House of Assembly.
Fitch said the two houses
of parliament, ‘are merely advisory bodies that have little influence over King
Mswati III and his handpicked cabinet. Furthermore, political parties are
banned in Eswatini with all elected officials standing independently. The small
amount of power that elected representatives hold is therefore rarely unified
to achieve specific policy goals.
‘Indeed, preliminary
figures suggest that only around a quarter of registered voters cast their
ballots, demonstrating the public's lack of faith in the electoral process as
an expression of popular will.’
Fitch in its analysis of
the immediate future of Swaziland said, ‘We believe that there are likely to be
further clashes between protestors and the Eswatini authorities over the coming
quarters. Economic growth is likely to remain extremely weak amid faltering
growth in neighbouring South Africa and this will weigh on fiscal revenues,
limiting the government’s ability to meet trade union demands for a 7.0 percent
increase in public sector pay.
‘Fiscal revenues rely
heavily on income from the Southern African Customs Union, which in turn is
dependent on South African demand that looks set to remain weak over the coming
quarters.
‘The Eswatini government is essentially broke and is relying on the domestic banking sector to finance spending. Against this backdrop, we see little prospect of the authorities ceding to public workers' demands for higher wages.’
‘The Eswatini government is essentially broke and is relying on the domestic banking sector to finance spending. Against this backdrop, we see little prospect of the authorities ceding to public workers' demands for higher wages.’
Fitch reported, ‘Frustrations
are likely to be fanned by King Mswati and senior figures in his government
continuing to live extravagantly. The king reportedly wore a
diamond encrusted suit and a US$1.6m
watch at independence celebrations in April, which came shortly after the
delivery of his second private jet, costing
a reported US$30m.
‘Public sector workers
conducted a three-day strike and protested against the government's refusal to
increase salaries in mid-September. The police met
these protests with a heavy hand, using rubber bullets and tear gas, and reportedly
fired live rounds into the air to disperse protestors. The
authorities have since banned further strikes, a move that will further
fuel public anger, in our view.
‘At this stage, we do not believe
that unrest will escalate to a breakdown in law and order or force a
significant alteration to the country's political structure. The security
services remain loyal to the king and his government, and will continue to
respond aggressively to signs of dissent, which will help to prevent unrest
from gathering momentum.
‘Additionally, regional
governments and South Africa in particular, are unlikely to be keen to see a
complete breakdown of law and order in their “backyard” and will therefore
continue to provide political support to the king and his government.’
See also
Swaziland
King appoints six of his own family to House of Assembly and more expected in
Senate House
Police Turn Swaziland City Into ‘Warzone’ as
National Strike Enters Second Day
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